From Researcher to Research Leader
Reflections from Forecasting for Social Good
An Unexpected Journey
I lead an active research group with around 12 PhD students, collaborating with:
- Government partners & WHO
- NHS Trusts
- Ministries of health across several African countries
Looking back, the journey from uncertain lecturer to research leader did not happen through a grand strategy.
A Moment That Changed My Perspective
A few years ago, I visited a health centre in West Africa.
- The shelves were empty
- No contraceptives
- No essential medicines
At first glance, it looked like a logistics problem. But the real issue wasn’t manufacturing or transportation — it was forecasting.
Planners simply didn’t have reliable tools to anticipate demand.
A Realisation
Standing there changed how I thought about research. Until then, I had been doing what many of us do:
- Publishing papers
- Improving forecasting models
- Developing new methods
But the real problem was not a lack of models.
The real problem was a lack of translation between research and decision-making.
The Shift
Solving these problems wasn’t going to happen through one paper, one model, or one project.
It required partnerships with:
- Ministries & NGOs
- Health systems
- Researchers across different countries
And that meant my role had to change.
Becoming Something Else
I realised I was no longer just a researcher. I had to become something else:
- A research organiser
- A collaborator and bridge-builder
- Sometimes a trainer
- Sometimes a fundraiser
What started as a research idea became a programme combining research, collaboration, and training across multiple countries.
Following Curiosity and Values
Looking back, I wasn’t following research trends. Instead, I was following:
- Curiosity
- Values
- Problems that genuinely interested me
The gap between forecasting research and real decisions fascinated me. The idea that research could empower people to make better decisions excited me.
Lesson 1: The Model Is Not the Centre of the Story
As researchers we are trained to optimise models. But in real systems:
- Organisations care about usability
- Practitioners care about trust
- Decision-makers care about practicality
A slightly simpler model that people actually use can be far more valuable than the perfect model that sits in a paper.
Lesson 2: Impact Moves at a Different Speed
Academic success often moves fast: papers, citations, outputs.
Real-world impact moves differently. It requires:
- Trust
- Relationships
- Patience
Some of the most impactful work I’ve done took years before producing a paper — and sometimes it produced no paper at all, but it changed practice.
Lesson 3: People Are the Most Scalable Impact
At first I thought impact would come from better models. But over time I realised:
The most scalable form of impact is people.
If you train analysts and practitioners, they will continue applying those skills long after a project ends.
Sometimes the most powerful thing a researcher can do is build capability.
The Uncomfortable Reality
There is also a less visible side to research leadership. The more successful a programme becomes:
- The less time you spend coding
- The more time you spend coordinating
- The more time you spend writing grants
At first this felt like moving away from research. But leadership means enabling knowledge, not just producing it.
